Gay Patriot and I have a friendly wager going regarding the 2012 election, which he sees as a potential replay of 1996 and I see more in terms of 1980. In other words, he thinks Obama is likely to win reelection, and I think he is not.
The bet originated during the BankOfKev Blogger Free for All, and the stakes are dinner at CPAC 2013. If I lose, I buy dinner for him and his boyfriend; if GP loses, he buys it for me and my husband, if I’m able to bring him out there that year. (The GP mate agrees with me, and as far as dinner is concerned, he notes that “either way, I win, since Bruce is paying.” As you can imagine, there’s been a lot of smack talk, and every time one of us makes a good point to support our point of view, it’s generally underscored with a remark about our expensive tastes in food.)
I, like the Gay Patriot Mate, simply don’t see that unemployment is likely to be curtailed, and with the inflation on the way I truly expect something like the “misery index” of the Jimmy Carter years to return.
I don’t want any of that to happen, but I think it will, and I believe that the economic suffering will cast a pall over Barack Obama’s reelection chances.
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I suppose if you ignore Obama’s current approval ratings, the surging stock market, the entire history of American presidential elections, and the pathetic selection of Republican candidates for 2012 I could see how you might think there’s a chance Obama could lose.
The stock market doesn’t vote, unemployed American workers do. A booming stock markets does nothing but make billions for the handful of elite running the country. If this booming stock market does not translate into new high paying jobs in the United States it is over for President Obama, as it should be.
Unless of course the Republicans do something stupid like run Palin or Huckabee.
He’s as unbeatable as George H. W. Bush.
Ann Coulter is correct: if we nominate Romney, we’ll lose. You won’t be surprised that I disagree with her about Cristy, though. I think Gov. Palin should be our nominee and that she’s the one who can beat Obama.
“Palin should be our nominee and that she’s the one who can beat Obama.”
Even though her approval ratings are down in the Nixon/W. range?
I think 10.3 % unemployment, gas in 3.50-4,00 range, make more of a difference.
Well, the unemployment rate will be below 9% by this time next year. Inflation will be holding steady at 2-2.5%. Those will be the official figures, and they’ll likely hold thru the general election.
Which means they’ll disappear another 1 million or so unemployed, and the inflation figure won’t include the cost of energy and food. That’s what’s going to bring down The One, because people will be able to see thru the good news of “lower unemployment” and “minimal inflation”.
“That’s what’s going to bring down The One, because people will be able to see thru the good news of “lower unemployment” and “minimal inflation”.”
Um, the Republican House has promised to “fix” the U.S. economy.
That’s why they were elected.
Any failure is on their shoulders now.
Can’t wait to see their budget, btw.
I hear it contains a record $1.5 trillion deficit.
Yeah, they can “disappear” another million or so unemployed. Because we’ll all forget about our friends, neighbors and relatives.
The unemployment rate was at about 6.9% when the Republicans got trounced in 2008. While the economy may improve between now and November 2012, I doubt that it will get back to the 5% unemployment range, let alone the 3-4% that we consider to be boom times.
I think that Obama will be helped by the fact that many of the problems created by his Presidency will not manifest themselves until after 2012. Given that voters decide based on perception at that moment, not reality, nor reality five or ten years down the road, this will help Obama – a lot. As but one example: most of ObamaCare will start being paid for in 2014. Cuts to Medicare to pay for it will happen in 2014 or later. Union waivers end in 2018. He gets the glory, and other people will be left to face the music.
Likewise, although unemployment may be down by 2012, the fundamentals are not strong. People my age have been out of work for years. They have student loans of the sort never imagined in your days, no experience, no 401K, etc. Every year that goes by for people my age is a bad thing – you’re left competing with people who graduated after you are and don’t come with “three years of unemployment” baggage on their heads. Yes, there is a bit of a “lost Generation” thing going on, and that will hurt Obama.
Older people who have been out of work for years are likely going to have a hard time seguing back into the economy and prosperity. If you’ve been out of work for two months, a job will solve most of your unemployment-related problems. When you’ve been out of work for two years, “a job” is only a start to the road back. It only starts replenishing your savings, paying down your mortgage (defaults are still happening in big numbers, which indicates that the market is still struggling), putting your kids through college (and if you get a job, say buh-bye to financial aid that you may have counted on when your kid enrolled). It starts going to years-long deferred projects, like painting the house, putting a new roof on it, replacing the furnace, buying a car or repairing the junker.
As I’m about to rant about on Belvedere’s blog, the other issue is that the regulations coming out of Washington, such as super-extended unemployment, make it impossible to hire on new employees. That which should bring the beast of the American economy roaring back, bigger and stronger than ever, is being killed by Obama’s policies.