. . . which we are still calling a “recession,” instead of what it really is.
[I]t was he who allowed Nancy Pelosi to do his job and craft the stimulus package. And only $600 billion of that trillion was actual stimulus; the rest was pork and payoffs to Democrats that did nothing to help the economy.
Says me? No, says liberal Democrat economist Brad DeLong:
The good news is we have avoided another Great Depression. But it seems ill-advised for Barack Obama to stand up on a Friday morning in early July and say that the economy is “headed in the right direction” (even if, as he said, “we are not headed there fast enough”) and to highlight “the sixth straight month of job growth in the private sector.” The employment-to-population ratio has been flat since November. Over the past six months–since the downturn ended–the U.S. economy has not been recovering from its near-depression, and not been putting a greater and greater portion of its potential labor force to work. Rather, it has been bumping along the bottom. There is a big difference between the economy getting “better” and the economy “no longer getting worse rapidly.”
…Go back to December 16, 2008, when Ryan Lizza reported in The New Yorker on the Obama Administration’s thinking. Council of Economic Advisors Chair-Designate Christina Romer believed the following: that the appropriate total value for the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act fiscal stimulus was something more than $1.2 trillion, but that to ask for a stimulus that large would risk gridlock in the Senate. (The result was an ARRA of about $600 billion of real stimulus tax cuts and spending increases alongside ineffective ornaments dear to the hearts of legislators.)
And getting that $1.2 trillion would have been easy, by the way. DeLong himself is pushing for more stimulus, and he is quite catholic in his tastes in stimulus—he urges either greater spending or tax cuts or both.
Tax cuts are Keynesian tools, too, of course.
So how could Obama have gotten the $1.2 trillion in stimulus he thought he needed?
Easy. Give the Democrats the $600 billion in stimulative spending, skip the “ornamental” pork, and give Republicans $600 billion in tax cuts. (My preference: A holiday in the payroll taxes for businesses to encourage hiring and employee retention.)
Not only would he have had his Shock and Awe stimulus, he would have gotten it with more than half of the GOP caucus voting for it, and thus would now have the useful political cover of bipartisan action (not the mention the unifying aspect of same—if you co-opt your opponents into joining you, they have skin in the game as far as scoring a victory, too).
But he didn’t. Because he decided he didn’t need Republican votes, and would rather have a delectable partisan victory.
And so we spent a huge amount—$1 trillion plus with interest—to no discernible effect and in fact really can’t shoot another stimulus bullet, even if our lives depended on it. (And, you know, they might.)
What I don’t get is why they didn’t even spend a lot of the stimulus money when it would have counted. It seemed like we get the bill, but don’t get the benefits. There’s so much capital out there that’s just lying fallow right now.
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{ 11 comments… read them below or add one }
Every time some toe-sucking, doom-and-gloom wingnut takes an effeminate swing at Obama, the Dow jumps 200-300 points.
Maybe Instacracker could step up to the plate tomorrow?
Careful ponce! Your whole head’s going to slip up Obama’s ass the way you keep brown nosing.
What are you going to say when it crashes? That some “wingnut” did it?
Dear President Obama, I know you read Attila’s blog, especially since you know that I come here to vent. So I thought I would give you some advice. Here is how you cure unemployment. And this is a win-win-win situation. Give a tax break to small business that hires or educates an apprentice. The tax break should be on the condition that you must hire a person who is counted as unemployed, and keep him employed for a minimum of 10 months (I could have said 1 year but I think that two months of holidays are just right) Now why is this a win win and I will get into exact numbers here, If a business hires three people the tax of one person should go to the owner of the business, the tax of one person goes to IRS and the tax from one person goes back to the three just hired. You will see unemployment drop dramatically, depending on the amount of tax break. All you have to do is sit down with a math major and figure out what is a nice optimization amount that keeps IRS happy, the small business happy and the workers happy. Now don’t be stupid like Raegan and give the breaks to the super wealthy, cause we would be waiting for them to spend money for about ten years, long after you are gone. Also don’t be like Reagan and have high unemployment because you think it is cool, to have cheap labor in the white house.
Now maybe I am no economist, but if I can figure out that an apprenticeship is better than no-job, and the incentives are there for someone who is overworked and wants to train others, and that this is precisely what you said during the campaign and some of us thought you meant it. It is entirely possible that some right wing person (like my friend Palin) might figure this out and use as a sales pitch and then you will be on the unemployment line. So listen up do this now! Instead of giving bailout money to those who do not hire, give tax cuts to those who do the hiring.
By the way while your at it, hire a few wanna be presidents and train them, then you can play more golf, and we will have more people looking into the gulf disaster, or the Israeli disaster or the Afghan disaster, and there will be three less people looking for a job. By the way good job on that health care bill, I still have the same insurance, nothing has changed, except my belief that 40 million Americans now have health care, that is three extra patients for each Physician. Now we just have to get those 40 million to go see a doctor.
Mr. President don’t think that I am changing my ways I still believe in gun-control. I have a right to control my own gun. I still have my pro-life stance, I am pro-living, someone else can die. Now I ain’t scared of no tea party, instead it is my goal, to get all my fellow Muslim brothers and sisters and Indian Hindus and Sikhs and Latino brothers and sisters, and African American the Panthers included, to join the Republican Party. We got to work within the system, I know that if we all do that, the current Republican party and the ditto heads will all leave. They will also change their ideology and philosophy. Can you see how that will help you Mr. Obama, you will get re-elected next time. And you will become the first president to start appointing CEO’s of companies. Good luck on that clean up,by the way don’t get sucked into Nuking the leak, that might start the doomsday device.
On 8 of the 10 key economic variables examined, the American economy performed better during the Reagan years than during the pre-and post-Reagan years.
Real economic growth averaged 3.2 percent during the Reagan years versus 2.8 percent during the Ford-Carter years and 2.1 percent during the Bush-Clinton years.
Real median family income grew by $4,000 during the Reagan period after experiencing no growth in the pre-Reagan years; it experienced a loss of almost $1,500 in the post-Reagan years.
Interest rates, inflation, and unemployment fell faster under Reagan than they did immediately before or after his presidency. Employment rose by 11 million jobs during the cyclical recovery of those four years (1982 to 1986), lowering the unemployment rate from 10.8 percent to 6.6 percent–all while maintaining a tight Federal Reserve policy to reverse the high inflation at the end of the 1970s.
The only economic variable that was worse in the Reagan period than in both the pre- and post-Reagan years was the savings rate, which fell rapidly in the 1980s. The productivity rate was higher in the pre-Reagan years but much lower in the post-Reagan years.
Now what were you talkin’ about, Azmat? Oh that’s right. Well you see, people that were working at the time–like me–didn’t pay much attention to the “Tax cuts for the rich” bullshit the Democrats and the Left were flinging about because we saw our take-home pay increase when we got that first check after the new rates went into effect. Sure, people that had been hit with those confiscatory rates of 90% got more–BUT THEY PAID A LOT MORE TO BEGIN WITH!! And with that income, they still paid a lot more than me afterward. A racist like you who thinks that white people will leave the Republican Party just because an Indian or someone with a darker skin color joins should check into the mental health options of that policy your employer still gives you. The Indians I know are all Republican now. I guess the Lefties settled elsewhere–maybe where entitlements are better.
The good news with your 40 million Americans uninsured number is that it was bullshit to begin with. The bad news is coverage doesn’t kick in for years. So you better hold your appendix for the next few years or hit the emergency room like all those illegals have been doing for years. Better not tell the hospital you’ll pay for it yourself though: You’ll get hit with a $250,000 bill rather than the $800 that Medicare patients pay. The difference goes to pay for all those people not paying. Or only paying $800 under Medicare or $1500 under their company plan. No room to raise those, you know, it’s by contract.
If he does read this, all I can say is Obama is lucky that his policies in handling the Gulf spill have assured an adequate supply of tar balls for the upcoming “Tar and Feather” sendoffs, starting in November. With the almost unending supply, there should be plenty left for January 2013.
I will say, Azmat, you know more than the rest of your fellow
LeftistsDemocrats–at least you are giving your stimulus funding to the actual businesses that generate jobs. Your pals threw money at the States–which promptly used it to pay for stuff already underway (in direct violation of the rules) or simply give raises to couple hundred political dufflebags already on the payroll. Illinois got caught–claiming those couple hundred dufflebags that got raises as jobs created. But the guy did say he tried to look for the correct box but couldn’t find it on the form. So far Obama’s stimulus has had almost a directly proportional change in the wrong direction from that which was predicted in the Bill. (For example, IL was to gain 150,000 jobs in the short term and 150,000 were lost. It is the same for most other States.) But what can you say about a Bill that didn’t have any feature to do what it said it would do? So by all means, deal with real employers. Let them know what the future holds so that they can plan and get on with business. So they can stop holding their breath waiting for the next shoe to drop. If I thought you were the kind of guy that actually listens, I would show you how the tax rates fell for people making $15K and $30K under Clinton and Bush–what to expect when Bush’s rates expire. But you’re not worth it at this point. And I’d hate to take away your “Tax cuts for the rich!!!” rant. Not that I ever could…One thing Spadilio is right about is that Obama, Pelosi, and Reid could have gotten way with an incredibly larger stimulus if they’d done it up front. There was nothing stopping them: no analysis, no media, no qualms about sneaking things through that no one had read, nothing to prevent their making the number $2 trillion, or $10 trillion, or $40 trillion. Now that outrage has had a chance to settle in and even a few here and there in the media are saying “hmmm,” and with the mid-terms coming up, they probably (probably) won’t get a chance to go back to the well. Although I’m still not ruling that out, especially for an infuriated lame-duck Congress.
The “Blame Bush” meme may work with Obamaphiles but most of us are recognizing that Obama is making things worse.
Heck even Babs may be starting to get it.
Sure Joe,
The U.S. economy was roaring when the Kenyan Usurper took over.
Roaring!
So those NINJA–no income, no job loans that the Democrats forced down the banks throats under threats of lawsuits–and more importantly–forcing them to close all branches other than the one they are guaranteed–wouldn’t have blown up in Obama’s face? Imagine that.
Darrell, I can’t argue with your experience, just like you cannot argue with mine. I guess we were in two different parts in America. You would never have to worry about last hired first fired. Reagan is your Achilles, you want to re-write history because your need for a hero. While your at it don’t forget to give him credit for Iran, the hostages and the arms deal. I have nothing against Reagan, you can make him out to be the best president ever, that just says something about your need to make up a good story.
Now regarding the Republican party and racism, I had hoped that you might have a sense of humor about it, but just like the Macaca sensitive issue, you seem to be sensitive to this stuff, forgive me I did not mean to imply that you are racist. Because you have close friends from other races and you invite people of different cultures to your house.
So now that the dust is settled, can you see that all I have to do to offend you is to write something negative about your God (Reagan). Too easy 🙂
You want to revise history because that’s what the Left does. Don’t believe your lyin’ eyes and ears, folks, just listen to what your betters tell you! People did answer Reagan’s question as to whether they were better off four years into his Presidency than they were four years before and they re-elected him by a historic margin. I know your version has Diebold and Haliburton in the mix. Liars lie. But Reagan would be the first one to tell you that he was no god, unlike that joker that claims to be able to stem the rise of the oceans and heal the Earth that sits in the seat of power now. Sure, you clever Lefties got an old man, George Allen, to call that Indian fellow–S.R.Sidarth–who had been showing up at Allen’s HQ and identifying himself as “Macaques” — “Macaca or whatever your name is” in public. The long con! Fantastic! That’s just about as clever as when I got inexperienced female substitute teachers to call out “Mike Hunt” in the classroom when they passed around the sign-in sheet taking attendence–“Has anyone seen Mike Hunt? Do you know Mike Hunt?” Hilarious. Or like Obama scratching his nose with his middle finger. But I never thought that Arabs or Jews or Indians were in any other race than I was. I grew up in a time when there were only three races. I thought God in his Wisdom had made it that way in order to assure the survival of all mankind given that we each have unique ways of dealing with the biological, climatic, and environmental perils we face. I understand why the Left seeks to isolate people into smaller and smaller subgroup so that they can never truly unite with another group to oppose them. Didn’t Stalin say that when facing twenty men he rather have them want to kill each other more than they want to kill him?